莱西论坛-张卫星:次债危机将卷土重来金价或再创新高 - TheFirstCity Web Content Management System Forum

张卫星:次债危机将卷土重来金价或再创新高
    经济学家、高德黄金总裁张卫星昨日向《第一财经日报》表示，美国次级债引发的危机并未结束，今年下半年还将卷土重来，未来3到5个月内，国际金价再创新高的概率达到60%~70%。

    这一现象背后，可能隐藏着政策资金护盘和更加复杂的因素……

    当前金价的最高纪录是3月17日创造的1032.55美元/盎司，之后金价一路下行，最低点达846.35美元/盎司。昨日电子盘，金价在连续5个交易日上涨后进入了小幅回调，截至北京时间19：14，伦敦现货金价下跌9.15美元至922.30美元/盎司。

    张卫星强调，得出上述结论是基于其多年经验的综合判断，重要原因之一就是目前金价的底部支撑力量强劲。“850美元/盎司是金价重要的心理位置和技术位置，27年前的底部就在这里，现在还没破，可见金价在这个地方有强烈的技术位支撑。” 张卫星说。

    当前，市场人士大多趋向将金价近期的上涨归结为油市“熊熊烈火”的指引。张卫星则认为，金价和油价两者之间没有太多关系，“并不认同油价带动金价的说法”，金价有着自己的基本面和价格驱动机制。

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